Neville Chamberlain, Britain's prime minister at the beginning of WWII, totally mis-read Hitler and thought he had achieved an agreement with the dictator to invade only the German speaking Sudetenland. Six months later Hitler had ignored the signed agreement and invaded Czechoslovakia and then on to Poland. Winston Churchill and others who had not met Hitler were not taken in by his appeasements and saw him as dangerous.
Judges are swayed by defendants and allow them out on bail (often with disastrous consequences) while data collected and analyzed calculated 1% of those released were high risk.
Bernie Madoff fooled enough people to amass himself and his family a large fortune through a Ponzi scheme. While many thought he was a little "off" no one could put their finger on it and he was, after all, "making" lots of money. Harry Markopolos, a fraud investigator, however went further and put together maps, charts and graphs trying to duplicate Madoff's financial plans, but was unable to do so. He informed the SEC in May 2000, (a decade before Madoff was arrested) and then again in 2005, 2007 and 2008.
The problem is we're truth biased and give people the benefit of the doubt. We judge their honesty by their demeanor. Well-spoken people who are friendly and engaging are seen as believable.
My thoughts:
Sociopaths learn from people/movies and can persuade someone by emulating others, but although they seem genuine, there is always an underlying feeling that something is not quite right. They have no empathy just as Bernie Madoff had no concerns about taking someone's hard earned retirement money to give the Madoff family a luxurious lifestyle. (Read The Sociopath Next Door by Martha Stout). We only stop believing someone when we no longer have an explanation for our doubts. Or have our doubts confirmed i.e. evidence of a cheating spouse.
Another problem we have is misreading someone's demeanor. In the Sandra Bland case, both Sandra Bland and the officer who pulled her over for a traffic violation were misreading each other and both were combative, leading to a bad situation. Then we have cultural differences. A frown in one society might mean something different to another.
Sometimes it's best to go with a gut feeling even when it doesn't make sense. If it doesn't feel right, walk away. Don't take three years trying to figure out why a relationship (business or personal) doesn't "feel" right.
Another good book to read related to understanding people and how they affect you is Boundaries by Drs. Henry Cloud and John Townsend
